Market outlook – 23rd June 2022

Rising inflation and rising interest rates continue to dominate the current investment narrative, both seen as negative for stockmarkets. Of particular concern is the uncertainty as to how much higher interest rates might need to rise to ‘tame’ inflation.

As a consequence, investors have very little clarity over how the global economy will fare in the coming months. Some commentators predict a severe recession, others think that only a technical recession will occur.  Faced with this uncertainty, many investors are choosing simply to hoard cash and take money out of the market, which is driving down share prices.

Taking a long term view, stockmarkets are now priced at a level that is much more realistic than a year ago and arguably offer a decent long term entry point. However, if we do see company earnings drop due to recession, it is anticipated that share prices will have further to fall.  

What is harder to judge is whether it makes sense to take money out of investments now and wait until (if) stockmarkets have fallen further before reinvesting. The short answer is that this only works if the timing is correct and history shows that trying to get this right is challenging if not impossible for the most informed investors.

On the positive front, prices have always recovered after previous falls, even if it has at times taken a matter of years before they have done so. The inflationary pressures currently being experienced make holding cash extremely unattractive on a medium to long term view and that fact should encourage even hesitant investors back into the market once the future inflation and interest rate environment looks a little more certain.

This article is issued by Portland Financial Management Limited which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Nothing in this article should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. This article may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.